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2026 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

These tables show the percent chance to end up with each pick after the lottery.
The last column shows the expected value, or average pick position, for each seed.
Scroll lower to see the base odds when no ties are included.
Current Odds Accounting for Forfeited Pick(s)
Positions resulting in a trade are highlighted in red. Not all trades (swaps) shown.
Team12345678910111213141516Avg
1
VAN
27.119.853.12.3
2
STL
14.415.131.838.72.9
3
WPG
12.211.98.940.326.73.6
4
NYR
10.110.10.317.644.217.74.3
5
CGY
9.09.20.328.042.211.35.0
6
CHI
8.08.20.339.037.96.75.8
7
NSH
6.97.20.250.831.23.76.6
8
OTT
62.134.23.78.4
9
WSH
5.35.60.262.124.82.08.5
10
NJ
3.74.00.171.519.51.19.6
11
CBJ
3.23.40.178.514.20.510.5
12
SEA
5.50.10.184.79.50.211.5
13
TOR
4.4>0.0>0.090.0
5.4
>0.0
12.6
14
LA
3.4>0.0>0.094.42.2>0.013.7
15
PHI
1.1>0.097.71.114.9
16
FLA
1.1
98.9
15.9
Base Odds Without Forfeits
Seed12345678910111213141516Avg
125.518.855.72.3
213.514.130.741.73.0
311.511.27.839.729.83.7
49.59.50.315.444.620.84.4
58.58.60.324.544.014.25.1
67.57.70.234.141.49.15.9
76.56.70.244.436.55.66.7
86.06.20.254.430.03.27.6
95.05.20.264.423.51.78.5
103.53.70.173.318.40.99.6
113.03.20.179.913.40.510.5
125.10.10.185.78.90.211.6
134.2>0.0>0.090.75.1>0.012.6
143.2>0.0>0.094.72.1>0.013.7
151.1>0.097.91.114.9
161.198.915.9
Determining the NHL Draft Order
1
All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2
Teams with the least points get more chances at winning the Lottery
3
The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump ten spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the 1st pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will be awarded to the worst team. The 12-16 seed team that won the first drawing is also locked into their new position.
4
A second drawing is held to determine the other lottery winner. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump ten spots, but this time it is using the re-seeded order following the first drawing. This second drawing will not affect the team(s) with locked-in positions from the first drawing. If a ten spot jump is to a pick that is already locked-in, this team will receive the next available pick.
5
Teams are only allowed to improve their positioning via the Lottery twice in a five year period (beginning with the 2022 Lottery).
6
Ties are broken by teams' total number of regulation wins (RW), regulation and non-shootout overtime wins (ROW), and then head-to-head if still tied
7
Playoff teams that did not win their divisions and did not make the conference finals, sorted by points, are assigned the next picks
8
Playoff teams that won their divisions and did not make the conference finals, sorted by points, are assigned the next picks
9
Conference finals losers sorted by points are assigned picks 29 and 30
10
Stanley Cup runner-up is assigned pick 31
11
Stanley Cup champion is assigned pick 32
12
Note: This site uses points percentage instead of points to account for different number of games played between teams